When Cubariqueno released the original Probable Cause in 2016 it was a divisive cigar among the Cigar Federation mods. I was a big fan of the powdered cocoa that the San Andres Maduro wrapper brought to the flavor profile.

When Juan Cancel told me they had a Lancero in the works, I was ecstatic to get my hands on it. Although the vitola is still a true lancero at 7-1/2”x38 RG, they’ve added a new twist by box pressing it.

This may be the longest stretch I’ve had a cigar for review before finally releasing the review. In total I smoked five samples, so I feel confident that I have a clear picture of the flavor performance.


Check out our interview with Juan Cancel and Bill Ives at the IPCPR 2017 in Las Vegas:


Vitola: Lancero (Box Pressed)

Size:  7-1/2” x 38 Ring Gauge

Wrapper:  San Andres Maduro

Binder:  Nicaraguan

Filler:  Nicaraguan

Cigars Smoked for this Review: Five

Price Point:  $10.50 MSRP

Cigar Purchased: Manufacturer’s Samples

Quick Note: For this review we used Logan’s rating system. You can view it in detail here.


“[…] I think the Probable Cause Lancero is going to reach a far wider audience because of it’s approachable flavor profile.”




Check out my video review here:



The nose on the Probable Cause Lancero has leather, barnyard, cedar, some notes of pepper. In the foot a substantial amount of sweetness, especially compared to the wrapper.

Using a v-cutter, I found the draw to be towards the tight spectrum which I found surprising. most box pressed cigars tend to be towards the open spectrum.

My initial taste impressions are significant amounts of powdered cocoa. After a couple draws there is an intense amount of spice and pepper that carries through to the post draw. The flavor undergoes an evolution as the first third settles in, and I get a sudden flavor of sweet citrus, which has a very short finish. The intensity of the sweet citrus falls to a medium minus at the halfway point of the first third, with the powdered cocoa so prominent on the regular draw, retrohale, and post draw. The intense spice and pepper has fallen back down to a background note.



I suddenly find myself at the 1 hour smoking mark without paying attention. In the middle third the cocoa is still going strong, but I don’t pick up any substantial profile changes during the transition from first to second third. At the halfway point there is some post draw leather developing, along with some subtle spicy earth.

In the last third the Probable Cause Lancero has the earthiness increasing in power to the point where it pushes the powdered cocoa aside, with the spiciness matching the cocoa intensity.

Total smoking time 1 hour and 55 minutes.

As a Lancero geek, the original Protocol Lancero is still my favorite. Looking at the overall cigar market though, I think the Probable Cause Lancero is going to reach a far wider audience because of it’s approachable flavor profile.


Surgeon’s Rating:  94 AKA “Box Buy”

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